2005 Election Results
Reformatted from an email message to the sage-members list:
Date: Tue, 28 Jun 2005 17:00:40 +1000 From: Greg Rose To: SAGE members Subject: [SAGE] SAGE election results (Modified by Tony Del Porto) The election results are in. Congratulations to Andrew Hume, Chris Palmer, David Parter, Doug Hughes, Geoff Halprin, Pat Wilson, Stephen Potter, Tom Perrine, Trey Harris. Many thanks to Matt Okeson-Harlow for running the election. The detailed output of the pSTV program, provided by Matt, appears below. Further down, I've done a fairly detailed description of the counting process. To all candidates: thanks for your efforts and willingness to run! regards, Greg.
Tabulation
- Election
- Sage Vote 2005
- Method
- Meek STV
- Number of Ballots
- 219
- Threshold Name
- Droop Dynamic Fractional
13 candidates running for 9 seats.
| R | Andrew | Chris | David | Doug | Gabriel | Geoff | Lorette | Matt | Pat | Steve | Stephen | Tom | Trey | Exhausted | Surplus | Threshold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 31.0 | 11.0 | 24.0 | 19.0 | 3.0 | 47.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 22.0 | 1.0 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 36.0 | 0.0 | 50.5 | 21.9 |
| 2 | 25.8 | 14.5 | 29.7 | 22.9 | 4.1 | 24.1 | 7.2 | 7.7 | 28.7 | 2.1 | 12.9 | 10.0 | 28.7 | 0.6 | 28.7 | 21.8 |
| 3 | 23.5 | 16.9 | 24.4 | 25.1 | 5.6 | 23.8 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 24.6 | 3.0 | 14.7 | 13.6 | 25.1 | 1.0 | 15.6 | 21.8 |
| 4 | 22.8 | 18.2 | 23.5 | 23.1 | 6.4 | 22.9 | 9.7 | 10.0 | 23.3 | 3.4 | 15.8 | 15.5 | 23.2 | 1.2 | 8.1 | 21.8 |
| 5 | 22.3 | 18.9 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 6.9 | 22.3 | 10.2 | 10.5 | 22.5 | 3.6 | 16.4 | 16.5 | 22.5 | 1.4 | 4.1 | 21.8 |
| 6 | 22.0 | 19.3 | 22.1 | 22.1 | 7.1 | 22.0 | 10.5 | 10.7 | 22.1 | 3.7 | 16.7 | 17.0 | 22.1 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 21.8 |
| 7 | 21.9 | 19.7 | 22.1 | 21.9 | 7.2 | 21.9 | 10.6 | 10.9 | 22.6 | 18.7 | 18.1 | 21.9 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 21.8 | |
| 8 | 22.8 | 20.4 | 22.1 | 22.5 | 22.2 | 11.6 | 11.1 | 23.7 | 19.5 | 19.1 | 22.4 | 1.5 | 5.3 | 21.7 | ||
| 9 | 22.1 | 20.9 | 22.3 | 22.2 | 22.1 | 12.1 | 11.4 | 22.1 | 20.1 | 19.9 | 22.2 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 21.7 | ||
| 10 | 21.9 | 21.2 | 22.0 | 22.0 | 21.9 | 12.3 | 11.6 | 22.0 | 20.3 | 20.3 | 21.9 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 21.7 | ||
| 11 | 21.8 | 21.4 | 21.8 | 21.8 | 21.8 | 12.4 | 11.7 | 21.8 | 20.5 | 20.5 | 21.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 21.7 | ||
| 12 | 22.4 | 23.4 | 23.0 | 23.3 | 22.0 | 14.4 | 22.5 | 21.4 | 21.6 | 22.8 | 2.3 | 7.6 | 21.7 | |||
| 13 | 22.3 | 22.4 | 22.3 | 22.4 | 22.2 | 15.1 | 22.4 | 22.3 | 22.8 | 22.2 | 2.5 | 6.5 | 21.6 |
| Round 1: | Count of first place rankings. Candidate Andrew Hume is elected. |
|---|---|
| Round 2: | Transferring surplus votes. Candidate Doug Hughes is elected. |
| Round 3: | Transferring surplus votes. |
| Round 4: | Transferring surplus votes. |
| Round 5: | Transferring surplus votes. |
| Round 6: | Transferring surplus votes. |
| Round 7: | Transferring surplus votes. Eliminating candidate Steve Misrack. |
| Round 8: | Transferring surplus votes. Eliminating candidate Gabriel Krabbe. |
| Round 9: | Transferring surplus votes. |
| Round 10: | Transferring surplus votes. |
| Round 11: | Transferring surplus votes. |
| Round 12: | Transferring surplus votes. Eliminating candidate Matthew Barr. |
| Round 13: | Transferring surplus votes. Candidate Stephen Potter is elected. |
Winners are Andrew Hume, Chris Palmer, David Parter, Doug Hughes, Geoff Halprin, Pat Wilson, Stephen Potter, Tom Perrine, Trey Harris.
Explanation of tabulation
A more detailed explanation of the above results:
First, the basic premise of a "single transferable vote preferential system" is that every ballot (that isn't exhausted, see later) goes towards electing one person. That one person will be the highest ranked candidate on the ballot who was electable. Sometimes the candidate with the highest preference on the ballot has more votes than they needed to get elected, so the leftover fraction of that ballot will flow on to the next preference. (This fractional flow is the "Meek" variant, and except in trivial cases you need a computer to do it; in paper elections they redistribute by taking a random sample of the bits of paper.)
An explanation of the columns: "R" is simply the round number. The counting happens in a number of rounds as people get eliminated, elected, or votes get moved around. There are then 13 columns, one per candidate. It is purely a coincidence that in this case there are also 13 rounds needed to settle the election.
"Exhausted" is the number of ballots that have gone through all the candidates who were voted for, and still haven't elected anyone; these are now out of the running. For example, there was one person who voted for only one candidate; when that candidate got elected with more votes than were needed, the leftover fraction of this ballot became exhausted, because there were no more people listed on it to pass the fractional vote on to.
"Surplus" is how many (fractional) votes were left over after candidates who were already elected had all the votes they needed to be elected. These are the ones that go to their next preference in the next round.
"Threshold" is the number of votes needed to elect someone at this round. (More traditional people call this a "quota".) Initially, this is the number of ballots divided by the (number of seats plus 1), but it will gradually reduce as ballots get exhausted because there are less ballots remaining in the pool.
So, the process starts by first counting all the #1s.
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Candidate Andrew Hume is elected. Candidate David Parter is elected. Candidate Geoff Halprin is elected. Candidate Pat Wilson is elected. Candidate Trey Harris is elected. |
The threshold starts off as 21.9 votes, being 219/(9+1). If you get more than this many votes, you're elected. Five candidates did. Let's look at two of them in particular, though. First, Pat Wilson got 22 votes, just squeaking in to this round. Essentially, anyone who voted 1 for Pat has pretty much had their vote used up to get her elected. On the other hand, Geoff Halprin has lots more votes than he needs -- he got 47, but only needed 21.9. So, each of these votes has some "leftovers". Even though Geoff is now elected, a fraction (0.534 or so) of each of these votes have not yet been used. These partial votes will, in the next round, be shared out among the second preferences of the people who voted for Geoff (and similarly for the others who have been elected, even the .0045 leftover from each of Pat's votes).
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Candidate Doug Hughes is elected. |
All the leftover fractional votes from the 5 elected candidates have been moved over to their second preferences. The first thing to note is that the person who voted for only one candidate voted for one of the elected ones, so when it came time to move that vote over, it became "exhausted". This has the side effect of slightly lowering the threshold, as there are now less votes in play (the new threshold: (219 - .53) / (9 + 1) = 21.8). The second thing to note is that, not surprisingly, many of those second choices went to other people who were already elected -- by way of example, Pat's vote has significantly increased. But Pat (and the other four) have already been elected, so those fractional votes need to move over to other people too. Third, Doug Hughes has now exceeded the threshold for the first time, so he too is elected, and leftover fractions of votes for him (whether they voted for him first or second) now need to be re-distributed.
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| Round 3: Transferring surplus votes. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Round 4: Transferring surplus votes. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Round 5: Transferring surplus votes. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Round 6: Transferring surplus votes. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Eliminating candidate Steve Misrack. |
For the next four rounds, the redistribution process continues; every time a vote moves to someone who's already been elected, the fractional leftovers get transferred in the next round. The number of exhausted votes increases a little bit each time (some people voted for two, three, or four candidates), with a slight (not shown because of rounding) reduction in the threshold required. The "Surplus" must decrease in each round, as more and more votes come to rest in the bucket for a candidate who hasn't yet been elected. After round 6 this process can not make any more progress: The candidates elected so far have just over the needed number of votes and moving their fractional votes can't make enough difference to any unelected candidate to get them elected. So, we try something else. The lowest ranking remaining candidate now gets eliminated (sorry Steve Misrack), and his 3.7 full and partial votes get redistributed to their next preference.
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Eliminating candidate Gabriel Krabbe. |
Even all of Steve's votes still aren't enough to get anyone else elected, though. So, we eliminate the next lowest candidate, and redistribute Gabriel Krabbe's votes. Now, he had 3 full-power votes still unused from the first round, and they go to their second preferences. He also had a total of 4.2 partial votes gathered as second or subsequent preferences from other people. These need to be redistributed, and re-redistributed, until something interesting happens...
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| Round 9: Transferring surplus votes. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Round 10: Transferring surplus votes. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Round 11: Transferring surplus votes. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Eliminating candidate Matthew Barr. Candidate Chris Palmer is elected. |
Still not enough votes in any unelected candidate's bucket, nor enough surplus to make a difference any more, so the lowest-ranking candidate (Matthew Barr) again gets eliminated. But redistributing other votes is, now, enough to get Chris Palmer elected.
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Candidate Stephen Potter is elected. Candidate Tom Perrine is elected. |
Redistributing all of Matt's votes, remembering that he still has 6 full-power votes from round 1, and the small leftovers from Chris, is enough to push both Stephen Potter and Tom Perrine over the threshold. At this point, the seats are filled, the election is over, and Lorette Cheswick is implicitly eliminated.
If the election had been run as "Vote for one person, and the top nine get elected" (and assuming that the person ranked first is who would have got that vote), Matthew Barr would have been elected instead of Tom Perrine. If it had been run as "Vote for up to nine people" (as has been done in the past, and assuming again that the people would have been the up-to-nine top ranked on the ballot), the result would have been the same as the STV process. This isn't terribly surprising; the STV process is expected to be fairer to minorities in the face of party politics, and I couldn't really identify any parties in this election.
Greg Rose
Chair, SAGE Leadership Committee
Ballots
The ballots are available for public examination in the standard BLT format of the Electoral Reform Society.
- The ballot file
- The MD5 hash of this file is 4cd212bdeca8434ece214aae25129f38.
- pSTV, open-source software for tabulating Single Transferable Vote ballots. It can open the above BLT file directly. The BLT format is described in pSTV's documentation.
The ballots in BLT format are below.
13 9 1 6 1 13 3 9 2 0 1 1 13 9 0 1 1 13 6 8 5 3 2 9 0 1 6 12 11 13 3 8 5 9 7 2 1 10 4 0 1 2 1 13 3 9 4 7 6 8 12 0 1 2 9 13 4 3 10 7 12 6 5 8 11 1 0 1 1 9 3 6 13 2 7 12 8 0 1 6 9 3 13 11 1 0 1 13 1 6 12 7 11 9 8 10 4 3 2 5 0 1 1 13 4 8 7 5 11 9 3 12 6 10 2 0 1 11 2 1 8 7 9 13 3 5 4 6 10 12 0 1 6 4 12 9 10 11 13 8 5 2 3 1 7 0 1 3 5 6 2 4 9 11 12 13 1 8 7 10 0 1 1 6 12 13 9 0 1 12 9 11 5 6 0 1 13 6 3 9 8 2 7 0 1 13 4 1 6 8 11 5 7 0 1 4 6 9 13 3 1 12 8 11 7 0 1 6 2 1 12 9 10 13 0 1 3 12 9 11 13 1 8 6 2 0 1 1 13 9 6 12 4 11 7 3 0 1 13 9 7 2 8 4 5 12 3 6 11 10 1 0 1 13 10 11 6 9 8 0 1 9 13 11 6 1 12 7 8 5 10 3 2 4 0 1 13 3 6 9 1 4 2 8 10 0 1 3 2 12 1 9 6 13 11 4 5 10 7 8 0 1 3 13 6 2 1 12 9 10 0 1 4 6 11 1 2 8 13 9 10 12 3 5 7 0 1 9 13 7 6 1 2 3 8 11 10 12 4 5 0 1 4 6 1 2 3 13 11 10 12 9 0 1 3 13 0 1 6 12 1 3 4 8 11 9 13 0 1 6 1 9 13 3 7 4 8 5 0 1 11 6 13 3 9 12 2 1 8 5 7 10 4 0 1 8 13 2 1 9 10 6 5 11 12 3 4 7 0 1 9 1 4 12 13 6 3 5 0 1 2 9 3 13 6 5 7 12 11 8 10 0 1 6 3 13 4 1 2 8 0 1 1 12 4 0 1 13 4 2 1 9 3 6 12 11 10 8 7 5 0 1 13 6 4 3 11 1 12 8 2 5 10 9 7 0 1 1 11 13 2 6 0 1 10 9 12 3 7 13 11 8 0 1 6 13 9 11 10 7 1 2 4 3 5 8 12 0 1 4 9 5 11 12 10 3 13 6 8 7 1 2 0 1 6 1 5 9 12 13 10 3 2 8 4 11 7 0 1 8 3 13 6 4 1 7 12 9 5 2 10 11 0 1 3 13 4 6 9 1 5 12 8 2 10 11 7 0 1 1 13 3 6 9 7 8 2 4 12 10 5 11 0 1 9 5 7 1 2 3 6 11 10 12 13 4 8 0 1 11 8 9 4 13 6 3 1 10 2 12 7 5 0 1 7 6 8 3 0 1 8 10 4 7 2 11 5 3 1 13 6 12 9 0 1 11 13 12 6 9 8 1 2 10 3 7 5 4 0 1 3 9 6 4 1 13 0 1 9 1 12 13 6 4 5 3 0 1 3 12 6 13 11 9 1 7 5 10 2 4 8 0 1 7 9 5 6 1 11 12 13 10 8 4 2 3 0 1 6 9 12 1 5 13 3 0 1 9 13 6 7 2 5 8 0 1 13 12 7 9 1 2 3 8 6 5 10 4 11 0 1 2 6 8 11 13 0 1 9 3 2 13 5 1 11 12 0 1 9 5 1 4 11 0 1 1 13 6 9 12 0 1 13 11 6 9 1 3 10 12 0 1 6 0 1 4 3 9 13 6 1 8 11 5 0 1 3 13 12 4 5 1 0 1 6 13 5 9 1 3 7 11 4 8 2 10 12 0 1 6 1 13 9 3 11 8 4 7 0 1 4 3 13 2 6 1 9 12 8 7 5 10 11 0 1 6 13 11 1 3 2 4 5 12 10 9 8 7 0 1 13 1 6 7 9 0 1 6 7 3 4 12 2 0 1 13 8 5 1 9 6 11 3 2 7 4 12 10 0 1 2 6 13 7 8 0 1 6 5 1 9 4 0 1 1 6 11 5 2 13 9 3 8 10 4 12 7 0 1 9 1 6 5 4 2 12 8 7 10 11 3 13 0 1 4 8 9 11 2 13 6 3 1 10 12 5 7 0 1 9 5 13 11 10 12 1 6 3 4 0 1 11 1 8 13 9 2 12 7 3 5 6 4 10 0 1 5 9 12 1 2 6 8 13 4 3 11 10 7 0 1 13 6 1 11 3 12 9 5 4 8 0 1 13 2 10 6 3 1 9 4 12 11 8 7 5 0 1 6 3 13 8 12 4 5 10 11 2 9 7 1 0 1 8 7 12 9 6 1 10 11 5 2 4 13 3 0 1 9 10 3 12 13 6 1 2 4 11 5 7 8 0 1 9 4 2 1 12 11 10 8 0 1 1 6 13 8 12 2 11 5 3 7 10 9 4 0 1 3 9 11 2 0 1 6 3 13 9 4 1 8 11 12 2 5 10 7 0 1 3 4 9 13 11 6 2 0 1 1 6 3 9 2 11 13 8 5 0 1 13 1 5 4 8 2 3 12 6 10 11 9 7 0 1 13 4 9 2 7 12 11 8 0 1 2 9 13 3 7 6 4 12 10 8 5 1 11 0 1 1 13 3 2 0 1 9 6 13 10 12 4 1 2 7 8 3 11 5 0 1 6 13 3 12 2 8 9 1 11 4 5 7 10 0 1 13 3 6 8 0 1 6 3 4 8 9 1 13 0 1 7 13 9 3 5 4 8 1 12 11 10 2 6 0 1 3 6 13 7 1 9 11 4 12 10 8 5 2 0 1 9 12 13 2 10 3 6 8 5 11 4 1 7 0 1 6 13 3 1 5 11 8 7 9 2 4 10 12 0 1 12 9 13 4 2 8 5 7 10 1 3 6 11 0 1 13 2 5 1 9 7 4 6 3 0 1 13 2 1 3 9 11 6 12 8 0 1 6 11 1 3 13 12 9 8 5 0 1 6 8 13 9 5 7 0 1 3 4 12 13 8 5 9 2 11 10 0 1 1 2 3 13 10 9 6 5 7 0 1 9 13 12 11 6 3 1 10 7 2 5 4 8 0 1 8 3 4 1 13 9 5 6 11 0 1 4 6 13 7 9 2 8 3 5 11 1 12 10 0 1 1 7 11 2 4 3 5 13 12 6 9 8 10 0 1 9 13 6 1 2 0 1 2 13 4 5 8 9 12 0 1 6 1 9 11 13 5 12 2 3 4 10 8 7 0 1 3 12 7 9 1 13 11 10 8 0 1 5 9 7 13 1 3 6 2 8 11 10 12 4 0 1 3 13 0 1 3 2 13 4 1 0 1 4 3 12 8 6 13 2 9 5 11 1 0 1 6 13 12 1 9 2 11 3 8 10 5 4 7 0 1 2 10 6 1 13 8 12 9 11 4 7 3 5 0 1 1 6 13 10 2 11 5 9 3 12 8 7 4 0 1 13 12 8 9 11 2 3 1 6 4 10 5 7 0 1 4 3 7 8 11 1 9 13 2 12 10 5 6 0 1 6 7 4 12 11 9 13 3 2 5 1 0 1 9 13 12 4 3 2 8 5 11 10 7 1 6 0 1 4 5 3 6 11 10 12 13 1 9 8 0 1 13 12 2 8 3 6 7 4 1 9 5 10 11 0 1 13 6 3 4 9 1 11 2 5 12 10 8 7 0 1 13 6 3 4 11 2 1 12 9 10 8 5 7 0 1 1 12 9 4 3 2 8 0 1 6 13 2 3 1 9 8 0 1 1 10 11 9 4 5 0 1 1 13 9 6 7 5 2 12 10 11 3 4 8 0 1 3 2 6 7 13 12 5 8 10 11 4 9 1 0 1 6 13 3 1 2 5 9 12 11 8 4 10 7 0 1 6 13 9 11 12 3 5 1 2 8 7 10 4 0 1 3 2 7 9 6 1 13 4 5 0 1 12 8 6 9 1 4 5 3 7 2 10 13 11 0 1 11 2 4 6 9 8 13 5 1 7 10 3 12 0 1 1 6 3 4 12 7 11 9 5 13 0 1 8 2 4 12 11 3 6 9 13 10 7 1 5 0 1 2 4 8 12 1 3 9 5 11 10 7 6 13 0 1 1 4 13 7 0 1 3 6 13 9 1 8 12 5 11 10 4 7 2 0 1 6 12 3 0 1 6 11 4 5 12 13 10 7 2 8 9 3 1 0 1 6 13 3 9 4 1 12 11 2 8 0 1 1 8 4 0 1 6 13 9 11 3 2 1 5 7 12 8 4 10 0 1 13 3 4 1 2 6 12 0 1 13 4 10 9 11 12 1 7 3 6 5 2 8 0 1 11 6 13 1 3 12 2 8 7 5 4 9 10 0 1 1 9 6 3 13 2 11 12 10 5 4 8 7 0 1 2 4 6 13 3 11 10 5 12 9 8 7 1 0 1 13 9 3 4 1 6 8 0 1 13 10 11 9 7 6 5 4 3 1 2 8 12 0 1 6 13 3 1 2 5 12 11 9 8 0 1 6 3 13 11 8 9 0 1 6 3 13 9 1 7 12 5 2 0 1 6 1 9 13 3 8 11 12 7 2 0 1 1 2 4 11 10 13 12 9 8 5 6 3 7 0 1 3 4 12 6 10 8 11 2 13 0 1 6 9 1 13 10 12 7 4 0 1 4 3 13 1 6 9 7 2 8 10 11 12 5 0 1 12 11 2 8 6 1 7 10 5 0 1 1 7 0 1 6 9 13 4 5 2 12 3 11 8 1 10 7 0 1 6 13 3 1 4 9 2 5 10 12 11 8 7 0 1 3 6 9 13 4 12 5 2 10 11 8 7 0 1 4 12 2 9 8 7 10 11 1 0 1 13 1 2 3 9 5 6 4 12 10 7 8 11 0 1 13 12 6 3 11 9 1 4 8 5 2 7 0 1 2 11 12 8 13 0 1 1 11 13 9 5 8 10 12 6 3 2 4 7 0 1 7 5 9 1 2 13 10 0 1 6 2 3 13 11 10 12 8 5 4 1 7 9 0 1 6 3 4 9 8 10 13 11 1 12 7 2 5 0 1 9 8 13 11 1 12 2 4 6 5 3 10 7 0 1 6 4 3 12 13 7 9 1 0 1 6 9 7 13 12 3 1 10 2 11 5 8 4 0 1 6 11 12 9 3 13 4 5 8 2 1 10 7 0 1 4 1 6 13 11 9 0 1 3 13 6 1 7 5 9 11 10 2 8 12 4 0 1 3 7 2 9 11 5 8 0 1 13 11 3 6 2 4 1 5 7 8 9 10 12 0 1 6 3 8 1 0 1 13 11 6 9 12 2 3 1 10 4 5 7 8 0 1 4 13 3 0 1 1 3 6 9 13 4 12 5 2 7 10 8 11 0 1 7 9 13 3 1 6 12 0 1 1 13 11 12 6 10 9 3 5 8 7 4 2 0 1 4 1 3 13 9 5 2 6 7 10 8 12 11 0 1 13 1 4 6 3 9 11 12 0 1 11 10 1 2 3 4 12 13 5 7 6 8 9 0 1 13 9 8 7 3 11 2 12 6 10 5 1 4 0 1 12 6 2 13 11 9 3 1 4 8 5 7 10 0 1 13 9 7 8 12 4 3 2 6 10 5 1 11 0 1 13 7 12 1 2 3 6 9 8 11 10 5 4 0 1 9 3 4 2 6 13 5 12 7 1 8 11 10 0 1 3 12 2 4 13 9 7 5 6 8 0 1 4 6 8 3 13 9 11 12 1 0 1 5 13 1 6 9 12 10 3 4 2 0 1 1 8 12 4 2 9 10 6 11 3 7 5 13 0 1 11 6 9 13 3 5 12 1 8 0 1 1 3 9 6 13 2 5 11 12 8 4 7 10 0 1 13 12 9 2 11 10 1 3 6 4 8 5 7 0 1 4 6 13 1 11 7 9 0 1 9 3 5 2 13 6 1 10 12 7 8 11 4 0 1 9 13 6 1 12 2 10 8 5 0 1 4 9 13 3 2 12 1 0 1 9 13 12 3 4 8 1 10 6 5 2 11 7 0 0 "Andrew Hume" "Chris Palmer" "David Parter" "Doug Hughes" "Gabriel Krabbe" "Geoff Halprin" "Lorette Cheswick" "Matthew Barr" "Pat Wilson" "Steve Misrack" "Stephen Potter" "Tom Perrine" "Trey Harris" "Sage Vote 2005"